- Greece s problems
Greece’s problems deepened on both sides of the Atlantic as the Federal Reserve disclosed it was investigating Goldman Sachs and other banks that helped the country mask its debts, and investors grew increasingly leery of lending any more money to a nation flirting with default.
On Thursday, the Moody’s ratings agency joined Standard & Poor’s in warning that it might downgrade Greek government bonds, a move that would increase the premium Athens must pay to borrow. The move comes at a precarious time for Greece, which must raise 25 billion euros ($34 billion) over the next few months to avoid a sovereign default that officials fear could cause the finances of other weak European economies to collapse.
In a sign of the challenges their nation faces, Greek officials also called off a planned trip to the United States and Asia aimed at interesting new investors in its bonds because of a lack of demand, according to an investment banker who was briefed on the government’s fund-raising strategy.
The European Union has said it would come to Greece’s aid only if it develops a plan to reduce its deficit by March 16, further ratcheting up the pressure.
“Even if they bring the deficit to zero, with interest rates at 6.5 percent and a growth rate of zero at best, Greece’s debt ratio remains on an explosive path,” said Miranda Xafa, a former executive board member at the International Monetary Fund. “I just don’t think they can raise funds from the market now.”
Greece has suffered from large deficits for years, and until now it seemed as if big banks would always be there to bail it out. As far back as 2000 and 2001, Goldman helped Athens quietly borrow billions to mask its poor finances by creating derivatives that essentially transformed loans into currency trades that Greece did not have to disclose under European rules.
Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, told Congress Thursday that the Fed was “looking into a number of questions relating to Goldman Sachs and other companies and their derivatives arrangements with Greece.”
Mr. Bernanke said the Securities and Exchange Commission was also concerned about how derivatives — financial instruments that are largely unregulated and do not trade on public exchanges — have contributed to Greece’s problems. “Obviously, using these instruments in a way that intentionally destabilizes a company or a country is counterproductive,” he said.
The S.E.C., in a statement, said that it could “neither confirm nor deny the existence of an investigation,” but added that it was cooperating with United States and international regulators in examining “potential abuses and destabilizing effects related to the use of credit-default swaps and other opaque financial products and practices.”
Goldman declined to comment, citing its policy of not addressing legal or regulatory matters. But in a Feb. 21 presentation, Goldman said, “The Greek government has stated (and we agree) that these transactions were consistent with the Eurostat principles governing their use and application at the time.” Eurostat is the European Union’s statistics agency.
Goldman is not the only bank that supplied derivatives designed to lower deficits. In the late 1990s, JPMorgan Chase helped Italy reduce its budget gap by swapping currency at a favorable exchange rate. In return, Italy committed to future payments that were not booked as liabilities.
A spokeswoman for JPMorgan said that Italy disclosed all of the deals to Eurostat.
Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut and the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, also took aim at credit-default swaps, which allow banks and hedge funds to wager on whether a company or country might default.
Critics say the swaps have contributed to Greece’s problems and increased the odds of a financial collapse.
“We have a situation in which major financial institutions are amplifying a public crisis for private gain,” he said.
The Fed inquiry was begun about three weeks ago, according to an official involved in the investigation who was not authorized to comment publicly. Fed examiners are focusing on whether Goldman and other banks complied with guidance the Fed issued in 2007 outlining
- Piata materialelor de constructii a scazut cu 20% anul acesta
Piata materialelor de constructii, inclusiv importurile, este estimata in acest an la 4,5-5 miliarde de euro, in scadere cu circa 20% fata de anul trecut, cand s-a inregistrat o valoare de 5,7-6 miliarde de euro, estimeaza presedintele Asociatiei Producatorilor de Materiale de Constructii din Romania (APMCR), Claudiu Georgescu.
Toate sectoarele au inregistrat scaderi, mai puternice fiind la tamplaria termoizolanta, ciment si corpuri de zidarie.
Datele statistice confirma o scadere a cifrei de afaceri din piata materialelor de constructii de 25% la 1 octombrie 2009 fata de 1 octombrie 2008 . Si aceste cifre se refera numai la productia din Romania. Trendurile lunilor octombrie si noiembrie au fost usor crescatoare, dar nu vor avea o influenta mai mare de 1 -2 %. Estimam pentru 2009 o valoare de 3,5 miliarde euro a cifrei de afaceri in piata materialelor de constructii fara a lua in considerare importurile. Importurile se situeaza la 1,2-1,5 miliarde de euro, a mentionat presedintele APMCR, Claudiu Georgescu.
Potrivit APMCR, ponderea pietei materialelor de constructii este de obicei intre 45-50% din valoarea pietei constructiilor.
In ceea ce priveste preturile de productie la materialele de constructie, Claudiu Georgescu a declarat ca acestea au crescut in acest an cu 4% pe fondul reducerii gradului de utilizare optima a capacitatilor, insa preturile comerciale au inregistrat scaderi, mai ales datorita reducerii marjelor comerciale ale distribuitorilor si comerciantilor. Si producatorii au facut reduceri temporare in cadrul unor promotii. Cat priveste 2010, nu vom asista la variatii atat de mari ale preturilor ca in acest an, a spus presedintele APMCR.
Piata constructiilor in ansamblu va avea, considera reprezentantul APMCR, un inceput de an 2010 incert si o oarecare dezghetare incepand cu aprilie. Coroborand informatiile din piata si ciclicitatea pietei constructiilor, dar tinand seama ca nu avem la aceasta ora un proiect de buget, orice pronostic exact este riscant. Totusi se intrevede un an greu si la limita rezistentei pentru firmele din domeniu, a precizat presedintele Asociatiei Producatorilor de Materiale de Constructii din Romania.
La inceputul lunii octombrie, numarul angajatilor din sectorul materialelor de constructii din Romania se ridica la 37.100, in scadere cu 26,6% fata de 50.600 de angajati in august 2008.
Producatorul de profile, structuri metalice si panouri sandwich Ruukki Romania estimeaza ca piata constructiilor si-ar putea reveni in a doua parte a anului viitor, insa nu va mai inregistra cresterile spectaculoase de anii trecuti. In 2010 estimam o revenire a pietei in a doua parte a anului. Avand in vedere sezonalitatea diferitelor segmente pe care operam, toamna este si perioada celor mai semnificative vanzari, astfel ca este posibil ca in a doua jumatate a anului sa se obtina rezultate indeajuns de bune incat sa compenseze perioada grea pe care o preconizam pentru primele luni ale anului. Cu toate acestea, chiar si atunci cand se va iesi din criza, consideram ca piata de constructii nu va mai inregistra niciodata cresterile spectaculoase din anii trecuti, care de altfel nu erau foarte sanatoase si nici nu ar fi putut fi sustinute la infinit, a declarat Madalina Dumitru, country marketing manager al Ruukki Romania si Bulgaria. Ruukki anticipeaza ca efectele crizei se vor resimti cel mai acut in trimestrul patru al 2009 si primele trimestre din 2010, in conditiile in care exista o perioada lunga de timp intre contractarea unui proiect si concretizarea lui.
Cu alte cuvinte, avand in vedere ca anul acesta nu s-au demarat multe proiecte noi, in urmatoarele luni se va simti cu adevarat impactul acestei realitati la nivelul intregii piete, a spus reprezentantul companiei.
sursa: topbusiness.ro
